Iran in Africa and Its Influence Portfolio: South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Uganda

Abstract

This article examines Iran’s foreign policy toward Africa (2018–April 2026) and the turning point triggered by the war that erupted on 28 February 2026 between Iran, the United States, and Israel. It argues that Africa serves Tehran primarily as a political arena: widening diplomatic room for maneuver, generating legitimacy, and sustaining interlocution through an influence portfolio (official diplomacy, Global South platforms, soft power, and selective strategic ties). The war reshuffles that portfolio by raising the costs of strategic visibility and making lower-cost instruments—and African partners’ segmentation strategies—relatively more valuable. Through three cases—South Africa (BRICS and thresholds), Zimbabwe (bilateral density and follow-up), and Uganda (functional ties, NAM, and mixed signals)—the article shows that Iranian influence is uneven and depends on each partner’s political value and the exposure costs amplified by war.